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Key Data Points
Key Data Points
SPX Daily Advance/Decline Line
SPX Daily Advance/Decline Line
SPX Weekly Advance/Decline Line
SPX Weekly Advance/Decline Line
Bitcoin Realized Price: $52,363.00
Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL): 54.61% (Overbought Level: 75.00%)
Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score: 2.37 (Overbought Level: 7.00)
Bitcoin Terminal Price: $249,806.00
Fear and Greed Index: Greed
VVIX: 98.13
S&P 500 9-Day Volatility (VIX9D): 11.85
CBOE S&P 500 3 Month Volatility (VIX3M): 17.76
VIX 9D / VIX 3M: 0.67
Truflation US Inflation Index: 2.12%
United States Fed Funds Interest Rate (Current): 4.00%-4.25%
Highest Probability Target Rate for October 29, 2025 Fed Meeting: 3.75%-4.00% (0.25% rate cut)
Highest Probability Target Rate for December 10, 2025 Fed Meeting: 3.50%-3.75% (0.25% rate cut)
Highest Probability Target Rate for January 28, 2026 Fed Meeting: 3.50%-3.75% (no change)
Highest Probability Target Rate for March 18, 2026 Fed Meeting: 3.25%-3.50% (0.25% rate cut)
U.S. 3 Month Treasury: 3.988%
U.S. 2 Year Treasury: 3.505%
U.S. 10 Year Treasury: 4.032%
10 Year Treasury Minus 3 Month Treasury: 0.044%
10 Year Treasury Minus 2 Year Treasury: 0.527%
VIX Futures Term Structure
VIX Futures Term Structure
Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar
Current Market Outlook
Current Market Outlook
Based on our analysis of our data, we maintain a bullish outlook. We expect the S&P 500 to reach approximately 7,300 this year, and view any near-term pullback as a buying opportunity. Any potential dip should be seen as a chance to add.
Market Projection
Market Projection
We are presenting the following market projection based on our own comprehensive research, analysis, and models. While this outlook is subject to change and will be continuously monitored and evaluated, we are documenting it now to establish a forward-looking framework. This will help us assess how future data aligns with our expectations and maintain a clear record for future reference.
Market Forecast:
1) Expect a melt-up to close out 2025, likely peaking in early December, with the S&P 500 projected to reach around 7,300.
2) From the start of 2026 through August 2027, anticipate a bear market with a projected drawdown of roughly -27%, bringing the S&P 500 down to around 5,300.
3) Expect the S&P 500 to bottom in August 2027, followed by the start of one of the strongest five-year bull markets, projected to run through the end of July 2032 and reach approximately 18,000.
Arkz Research | July 6, 2025
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